Business Observability · Customer Retention

Illustrative sample data — not a live customer book

ARR-at-Risk Briefing

The recurring revenue trying to leave right now — and how long you have to save it — assembled live by an AI asking Outcome Owl in plain language, every figure cited and its limits disclosed.

Live · read-only connection data as of 2026-07-23 data confidence: normal 27 typed tools

One plain-language question — “how much recurring revenue is trying to leave, and can I still save it?” — resolved in seconds: $784.8M of ARR sits in accounts that have filed to cancel. The difference from every other exposure: most of it is still savable — if you see it in time.

The headline

ARR under active cancellation notice

$784.8M

exact: $784,763,007.26 · sum of Account ARR · function=sum · status=Active

$127.6M past the save window16% · 844 accounts

The signal before the notice

A further $678.5M in ARR sits in accounts with open support cases — the leading indicator before a cancellation. It's kept separate from the $784.8M above, since an account can appear in both — never double-counted into a false total.

5,748

Accounts on cancellation notice

97.4% carry an ARR value — near-complete

1,238

Active escalations on cancelling accounts

accounts getting louder during the save

~$140K

Mean ARR per at-risk account

$784.8M ÷ 5,600 · up to ~$2.0M enterprise

The clock — and the noise

Where the window has closed

$127.6Mpast the save window · 844 accounts

Each cancellation carries a retention/save window from its own start date. For these accounts, that window has run out — the revenue is on its way out unless reopened.

Timed per account: “overdue” here means past each account's own save deadline — not a blanket age cutoff — so the urgency is real and account-specific.

And getting louder

1,238active escalations on cancelling accounts

Deviations and threshold breaches on accounts already in the save flow — the ones escalating while you still have a chance to intervene, each drillable to the account.

The earlier tier: $678.5M in open support cases sits upstream of cancellation — watch it and you act before the notice, not after.

Your single largest account at risk — still savable

Account #ENT-0124 · customer retention

$1,996,203.49

“Customer retention save case from cancellation notice to outcome.”

33 days left save offer out impacts revenue severity 4

Caught while you can still act. Your single largest at-risk account — $2.0M ARR — filed to cancel on Jul 12. The save team has already assessed it and extended an offer (Jul 23); the window closes Aug 26 — 33 days out. Unlike a loan already stalled or an invoice already unpaid, this hasn't gone wrong yet — the surface put it in front of you with time on the clock.

Cancellation Notice Received

Jul 12

Save Assessment

Jul 15

Save Offer Extended

Jul 23 — live

completeness: indeterminate save window closes Aug 26 intake: CSV upload

Notice → assessment → offer extended, all inside eleven days — the timeline reads indeterminate because the outcome (saved or churned) isn't written yet. That's the point: it's still open, and the surface shows you exactly how long you have.

How it was assembled — the live tool trace

ask “which of my attributes are open exposure?”

→ attribute_catalog(role='exposure') // Account ARR = revenue at risk

ask “total the ARR in accounts trying to cancel”

→ aggregate(Account ARR, sum, status=Active) // $784.8M · 5,600 of 5,748

→ aggregate(…, overdue_only=true) // $127.6M past the save window · 844

→ list_violations(count_only) // 1,238 active escalations

→ list_processes(sort by Account ARR) // biggest at-risk → Account ENT-0124 ($2.0M)

→ process + timeline(ENT-0124) // notice → assessment → save offer, 33 days left

Why an agent can act on this

cited

Every figure traces to a call

No number appears without the tool, filter, and population that produced it — an account opens straight to its save timeline.

bounded

Cost-governed at scale

An over-broad query is refused with the exact filter to add — it never silently runs to a timeout or returns a partial total dressed as complete.

coverage

Complete vs. partial, stated

Here 5,600 of 5,748 accounts carry an ARR value — near-complete, and the surface says so rather than implying it.

no double-count

Signals kept separate

Cancellation ARR and open-case ARR are distinct signals and are never summed into a false total — each account counts once, per signal.

clocks

The right clock per account

The save window is each account's own deadline from its notice date. Selection is near-real-time; ARR values are as of the daily refresh.

facts

Facts, never judgments

It reports the ARR, the window, the escalations; it never says an account is “lost” or tells anyone to act. That judgment — and the save — stay with you.

See which accounts are leaving — while you can still save them

Every figure above came from a read-only connection and a plain-language question — no integration project, no data leaving your control. The same works on your accounts, your renewals, your book.

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